List of Figures

List of Tables

Preface

List of Acronyms

1. Introduction

Our Approach

Organization of the Book

2. Background

Brief History of Federal Welfare Policy

Policy and Program Changes during the 1990s

Welfare-Related Outcomes in the 1990s

3. An Economic Model

AFDC and the Standard Economic Model

Financial Work Incentives

Requirements for Work or Related Activities

Time Limits

Summarizing the Predictions

4. Methodological Issues

Methods of Causal Inference in Studies of Welfare Reform

Measuring the Policy Environment

Data Sources for Welfare Outcomes

Summary of Studies Included in the Analysis

5. Welfare Use and Welfare Payments

Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms

Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms

Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle

Estimates of the Effect of the Economy

Summary

6. Employment, Labor Supply, and Earnings

Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms

Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms

Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle

Estimates of the Effect of the Economy

Summary

7. Income and Poverty

Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms

Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms

Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle

Estimates of the Effect of the Economy

Summary

8. Family Structure

Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues

Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Marriage

Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Marriage

Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing

Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing

Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Childbearing

Summary

9. Child Outcomes

Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues

Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms

Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms

Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle

Summary

10. Theory, Evidence, and Policy Trade-offs

Summarizing the Empirical Evidence

Welfare, Labor Market Behavior, and Income

Marriage, Childbearing, and Child Outcomes

Welfare Reform as a Bundle

What We Don't Know about Welfare Reform

Appendix A. Sources for Experimental Study Results

Appendix B. Methodology for Summary Figures in Chapter 10

References

Index

Jeffrey T. Grogger is Irving Harris Professor in Urban Policy, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago.

Lynn A. Karoly is Senior Economist, RAND Corporation.