- Preface
- 1. Introduction: Perspective on Risk
- Perception is Crucial
- Definition of Risk
- Risk Changes as Events Unfold
- Measures of Risk
- Different Measures Can Lead to Different Decisions
- Absolute or Incremental Risk
- Defining the System Boundary
- Layout of the Book
- 2. Methods of Risk Calculation and Estimation
- Evaluation of “Historical” Risks
- “New” Risks: (1) Factorization of an Engineering System with an Event Tree
- “New” Risks: (2) of Epidemiology and Its Ambiguities Risks of Doses Less than Background: The “Linear Default”
- Beneficial Effects and Hormesis
- New Risks: (3) The Use of Animal Data to Estimate Risks to Humans Probability of Causation
- Elicitation of Expert Opinion
- Exposure and Dose Estimation
- The Risk of a System—the Impact Pathway Approach
- Risk of the Impossible
- Large and Immeasurable Risks
- The Chimera of Zero Risk—Predictable but Irrelevant
- 3. Uncertainty and Variability
- Risk Implies Uncertainty
- Different Types of Uncertainty
- As Risk Changes with Time, So Does Uncertainty
- Stochastic Uncertainties
- Variability vs. Uncertainty
- Uncertainty vs. Error
- Independence of Uncertainties
- Uncertainty in Cancer Risk Assessment
- Monte Carlo Models
- Model Uncertainty
- Uncertainty in Expert Elicitation
- Overconfidence in Uncertainty Estimates
- 4. Perception of Risks
- Tversky’s Analyses
- Other Attributes and Dimensions
- Managers and Decision Makers Consider Public Perception
- Comparing Risks (Risk-Risk Comparisons)
- Comparing Risks for the Same Benefit (Cost Effectiveness)
- Expression of Risks
- Public Misconceptions
- Common Public Misconceptions
- Recipe for Communication
- 5. Formal Comparison of Risk and Benefit
- Distributional Inequity
- Deriving Suitable Value Functions
- Choice of Discounting Rates
- Approximations and Simplified Schemes
- 6. Risk Management: Managing and Reducing Risks
- We Calculate Risks in Order to Reduce Them
- Schemes for Analyzing Risk Management Options
- Criteria for Risk Management
- The Ban or Taboo
- Best Available Control Technology
- Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis
- The Precautionary Principle
- Regulation on Upper Limit of Risk
- Risk versus Certainty of Information
- The “De Minimis” Risk
- Risk-related Decisions of the U.S. EPA
- Probability of Causation
- Management by Avoiding Precursors
- Asbestos and Dioxin
- Reducing Risk by Technological Improvement
- Radiation Protection
- Economic Incentives
- The Multiple Uses of a Risk Assessment
- Use of Comparisons to Guide a Manager
- Safety Culture and the Importance of Incentives
- Congress as the Filter for Societal Values
- The Dual Role of the Courts
- 7. Lists of Risks
- Some Examples of Risk Calculations
- The Risk (of Death) in Living
- Life Expectancy A Selection of Risks: Historically Calculated
- Time (or Action) to Reach One in a Million Risk
- Loss of Life Expectancy (LOLE)
- A Partial List of Catastrophes
- Amounts Paid to Avert Deaths
- Variation and Uncertainties
- Detailed Discussions of Some Risks
- 8. Bibliography
- Books
- Journals
- Websites
- Specific References
- Appendix 1: Some Famous Quotations
- Appendix 2: Application of EPA’s Hazardous Waste Identification Rule
- 1. Variability
- 2. Uncertainty
- 3. Legislative Mandate and its Interpretation
- 4. Precise Definitions
- Appendix 3: Procedure Used for Age Adjustment by NCHS
- Appendix 4: Are Mushrooms Safe to Eat, or Should They Be Considered Toxic Waste?
- The Problem
- Materials and Methods
- Results
- Implications
- Modifying Comments
- Appendix 5: Evaluating the Lung-Cancer Risks Due to Smoking, Exposure to Asbestos, and Their Combination
- Smoking
- Asbestos
- Assigning Causation of Lung Cancer to Smoking and Asbestos—the Logic of the Approach
- Interaction between Smoking and Cigarettes
- Epilogue
- Index
HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Risk-Benefit Analysis
Second Edition
Product Details
PAPERBACK
$25.00 • £21.95 • €22.95
ISBN 9780674005297
Publication Date: 10/30/2001
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