Cover: Risk-Benefit Analysis in PAPERBACK

Risk-Benefit Analysis

Second Edition

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Product Details


$25.00 • £20.95 • €22.50

ISBN 9780674005297

Publication Date: 10/30/2001


384 pages

6 x 9 inches

20 line illustrations

Harvard School of Public Health


  • Preface
  • 1. Introduction: Perspective on Risk
    • Perception is Crucial
    • Definition of Risk
    • Risk Changes as Events Unfold
    • Measures of Risk
    • Different Measures Can Lead to Different Decisions
    • Absolute or Incremental Risk
    • Defining the System Boundary
    • Layout of the Book
  • 2. Methods of Risk Calculation and Estimation
    • Evaluation of “Historical” Risks
    • “New” Risks: (1) Factorization of an Engineering System with an Event Tree
    • “New” Risks: (2) of Epidemiology and Its Ambiguities Risks of Doses Less than Background: The “Linear Default”
    • Beneficial Effects and Hormesis
    • New Risks: (3) The Use of Animal Data to Estimate Risks to Humans Probability of Causation
    • Elicitation of Expert Opinion
    • Exposure and Dose Estimation
    • The Risk of a System—the Impact Pathway Approach
    • Risk of the Impossible
    • Large and Immeasurable Risks
    • The Chimera of Zero Risk—Predictable but Irrelevant
  • 3. Uncertainty and Variability
    • Risk Implies Uncertainty
    • Different Types of Uncertainty
    • As Risk Changes with Time, So Does Uncertainty
    • Stochastic Uncertainties
    • Variability vs. Uncertainty
    • Uncertainty vs. Error
    • Independence of Uncertainties
    • Uncertainty in Cancer Risk Assessment
    • Monte Carlo Models
    • Model Uncertainty
    • Uncertainty in Expert Elicitation
    • Overconfidence in Uncertainty Estimates
  • 4. Perception of Risks
    • Tversky’s Analyses
    • Other Attributes and Dimensions
    • Managers and Decision Makers Consider Public Perception
    • Comparing Risks (Risk-Risk Comparisons)
    • Comparing Risks for the Same Benefit (Cost Effectiveness)
    • Expression of Risks
    • Public Misconceptions
    • Common Public Misconceptions
    • Recipe for Communication
  • 5. Formal Comparison of Risk and Benefit
    • Distributional Inequity
    • Deriving Suitable Value Functions
    • Choice of Discounting Rates
    • Approximations and Simplified Schemes
  • 6. Risk Management: Managing and Reducing Risks
    • We Calculate Risks in Order to Reduce Them
    • Schemes for Analyzing Risk Management Options
    • Criteria for Risk Management
    • The Ban or Taboo
    • Best Available Control Technology
    • Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • The Precautionary Principle
    • Regulation on Upper Limit of Risk
    • Risk versus Certainty of Information
    • The “De Minimis” Risk
    • Risk-related Decisions of the U.S. EPA
    • Probability of Causation
    • Management by Avoiding Precursors
    • Asbestos and Dioxin
    • Reducing Risk by Technological Improvement
    • Radiation Protection
    • Economic Incentives
    • The Multiple Uses of a Risk Assessment
    • Use of Comparisons to Guide a Manager
    • Safety Culture and the Importance of Incentives
    • Congress as the Filter for Societal Values
    • The Dual Role of the Courts
  • 7. Lists of Risks
    • Some Examples of Risk Calculations
    • The Risk (of Death) in Living
    • Life Expectancy A Selection of Risks: Historically Calculated
    • Time (or Action) to Reach One in a Million Risk
    • Loss of Life Expectancy (LOLE)
    • A Partial List of Catastrophes
    • Amounts Paid to Avert Deaths
    • Variation and Uncertainties
    • Detailed Discussions of Some Risks
  • 8. Bibliography
    • Books
    • Journals
    • Websites
    • Specific References
  • Appendix 1: Some Famous Quotations
  • Appendix 2: Application of EPA’s Hazardous Waste Identification Rule
    • 1. Variability
    • 2. Uncertainty
    • 3. Legislative Mandate and its Interpretation
    • 4. Precise Definitions
  • Appendix 3: Procedure Used for Age Adjustment by NCHS
  • Appendix 4: Are Mushrooms Safe to Eat, or Should They Be Considered Toxic Waste?
    • The Problem
    • Materials and Methods
    • Results
    • Implications
    • Modifying Comments
  • Appendix 5: Evaluating the Lung-Cancer Risks Due to Smoking, Exposure to Asbestos, and Their Combination
    • Smoking
    • Asbestos
    • Assigning Causation of Lung Cancer to Smoking and Asbestos—the Logic of the Approach
    • Interaction between Smoking and Cigarettes
  • Epilogue
  • Index

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