- List of Figures and Tables*
- Preface
- Introduction: Why Study Demography?
- 1. Exponential Growth
- 1.1 The Balancing Equation
- 1.2 The Growth Rate R
- 1.3 The Exponential Curve
- 1.4 Models and Parameters
- * 1.5 Taylor Series
- * 1.6 Logistic Growth
- 1.7 Doubling Times
- 2. Periods and Cohorts
- 2.1 Lexis Diagrams
- 2.2 Period Person-Years Lived
- 2.3 The Crude Rate Model
- 2.4 The Infant Mortality Rate
- * 2.5 Person-Years and Areas
- 2.6 Cohort Person-Years Lived
- 2.7 The Stationary Population Identity
- 3. Cohort Mortality
- 3.1 Cohort Survival by Analogy
- 3.2 Probabilities of Dying
- 3.3 Columns of the Cohort Life Table
- 3.3.1 King Edward’s Children
- 3.3.2 From nLx to ex
- 3.3.3 The Radix
- * 3.4 Hazards and Survivors
- * 3.5 Gompertz Hazards
- 3.6 Annuities and Insurance
- 3.7 Mortality of the 1300s and 2000s
- 4. Cohort Fertility
- 4.1 Generational Renewal
- 4.2 Age-Specific Fertility
- 4.3 ASFRs and the NRR
- 4.4 Cohort Parity
- 4.5 Natural Fertility
- 5. Population Projection
- 5.1 Transition Matrices
- 5.2 Structural Zeros
- 5.3 The Leslie Matrix Subdiagonal
- * 5.4 The Leslie Matrix First Row
- 5.5 Projecting Fillies, Mares, Seniors
- * 5.6 Multi-State Tables
- * 5.7 Population Renewal
- * 5.8 Variable r and the Lexis Surface
- 6. Period Fertility
- 6.1 Period Measures
- 6.2 Period Age-Specific Fertility
- 6.3 Period NRR, GRR, and TFR
- * 6.4 Log(GRR) Plots
- 6.5 Age-Standardized Rates
- * 6.6 Tempo and Quantum
- 6.7 Princeton Indices
- 6.8 Coale and Trussell’s M and m
- 7. Period Mortality
- 7.1 Period Lifetables
- 7.2 Gaps and Lags
- 7.3 The 1660s and Laws of Mortality
- 7.4 Graunt’s Model Lifetable
- 7.5 Coale–Demeny Model Lifetables
- 7.6 Brass Relational Logit Models
- * 7.7 Lee–Carter Models
- 8. Heterogeneous Risks
- 8.1 Heterogeneity
- 8.2 Multiple Decrements
- * 8.3 Competing Risks
- * 8.4 Calculations with Hazards
- * 8.5 Lifeluck, Risk, and Frailty
- * 8.6 Proportional Hazards
- * 8.7 Cox Regression Estimation
- * 8.8 Frailty Models
- 9. Marriage and Family
- 9.1 The Complexity of Marriage
- 9.2 First Marriage by Analogy
- 9.3 The SMAFM
- * 9.4 The Singulate Mean Formula
- 9.5 Marity
- 10. Stable Age Structures
- 10.1 Age Pyramids
- 10.2 Stationary Equivalent Populations
- 10.3 Consequences of Unchanging Rates
- 10.4 Stable Age Pyramids
- 10.5 The Many Faces of Lotka’s r
- * 10.6 The Euler–Lotka Equation
- * 10.7 Life Left in Stable Populations
- 10.8 Population Momentum
- 11. Migration and Location
- 11.1 Spatial Demography
- 11.2 Flows of People
- 11.3 Concentrations
- * 11.4 Random Walks
- 11.5 GIS and Cartograms
- Conclusion
- Appendix A: Sources and Notes
- Appendix B: Useful Formulas
- Bibliography
- Index
- * Figures and Tables
- Figures
- 1.1 K(t) with ever-changing slope
- 1.2 Log K(t) with constant slope
- 1.3 Trajectories of exponential growth
- 1.4 Rise and run: China’s log-population
- 2.1 A Lexis diagram
- 2.2 Cohort, period, and age
- 2.3 IMR contributions on a Lexis diagram
- 2.4 Lexis diagram for a stationary population
- 3.1 Lexis diagram for the children of King Edward III
- 3.2 Lifespans and ℓx
- 3.3 Typical shapes of lifetable functions
- 3.4 An ℓx curve
- 3.5 A Gompertz hazard function
- 3.6 Logarithm of the hazard function
- 4.1 Cohort fertility on a Lexis diagram
- 5.1 Permitted transitions among marital statuses
- 5.2 Contributions to the Leslie matrix subdiagonal
- 5.3 Zigzag paths with Variable r
- 6.1 From period to cohort on a Lexis diagram
- 6.2 Typical age-specific fertility schedules
- 6.3 Log GRR plot for England and Wales and for India
- 6.4 Birth age standardization for tempo adjustment
- 6.5 Fitting the Coale–Trussell model
- 7.1 U.S. gaps and lags
- 7.2 Shapes of Brass model lifetables
- 8.1 Double jeopardy
- 8.2 Cumulative hazard and median duration
- 8.3 Partial likelihood
- 9.1 The Singulate Mean as an area
- 10.1 Examples of stable age pyramids
- 10.2 Examples of observed age pyramids
- 10.3 Projected growth rates over time
- 10.4 An age group share over time
- 10.5 Age group size over time
- 10.6 Logarithm of Lotka’s integral for trial values of r
- 10.7 Logarithm of births in the Keyfitz scenario
- 11.1 Rural and urban world populations
- 11.2 Rank-Size Plot for U.S. cities 2010
- 11.3 Computing indices of separation
- 11.4 Equal density cartogram for the United States
- Tables
- 1.1 The world population 2010 to 2011
- 1.2 Growth rates in China
- 1.3 Fitting Moore’s Law
- 1.4 World populations and doubling times over history
- 1.5 U.S. Census counts in millions
- 2.1 The world’s 10 most populous countries
- 3.1 An analogy between populations and cohorts
- 3.2 Children of King Edward III of England
- 3.3 Five columns of King Edward’s family lifetable
- 3.4 Right-hand columns of a lifetable
- 3.5 Cohort lifetable formulas
- 3.6 Fitting Gompertz parameters
- 3.7 Survivorship forecasts for a U.S. cohort
- 3.8 Hazard rates for British women born in 1910
- 4.1 Generation sizes and the NRR
- 4.2 A cohort NRR from U.S. age-specific rates
- 4.3 Completed parity for U.S. women born in 1934
- 4.4 Dutch women age 50 by parity, 2009
- 4.5 Fertility rates specific for age and parity
- 4.6 Data for the 1800 cohort of Swedish women
- 4.7 Women by completed parity, Malawi, 2004
- 6.1 Age-specific rates for India, 2000
- 6.2 Calculating the NRR, India, 2000
- 6.3 An age-standardized birth rate
- 6.4 Calculating If and Ig for Berlin in 1900
- 6.5 Coale–Trussell spine constants
- 6.6 Coale–Trussell M and m for Bangladesh 2007
- 6.7 Period data for women in Togo for 1961
- 6.8 GRR and TFR from China
- 6.9 Portuguese fertility 1930 and 1960
- 7.1 U.S. raw mortality data from 2010
- 7.2 The Graunt lifetable
- 7.3 Spines for Brass general standard
- 7.4 Estimation of Brass parameters
- 8.1 Cause-specific death rates for Japan, ages 80–85 for 1981 to 1990
- 8.2 Lifeluck, risk, and frailty
- 8.3 Proportional hazard parameters
- 8.4 Record lifespans
- 9.1 First marriages for the U.S. cohort of 1930
- 9.2 Marital breakdowns for Egypt in 1986
- 9.3 Marital status proportions for U.S. women, 1990
- 10.1 Stable population data for India, youth, 2000
- 10.2 Stable population data for India, adults, 2000
- 11.1 The 10 most populous U.S. cities in 2010
- 11.2 Rural and urban populations in 2010
- Figures
Dumbarton Oaks Medieval Library
I Tatti Renaissance Library
Loeb Classical Library
Murty Classical Library of India