Cover: Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions, from Harvard University PressCover: Public Policy in an Uncertain World in HARDCOVER

Public Policy in an Uncertain World

Analysis and Decisions

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Product Details

HARDCOVER

$48.00 • £38.95 • €43.00

ISBN 9780674066892

Publication Date: 02/18/2013

Text

224 pages

6-1/8 x 9-1/4 inches

1 graph, 3 tables

World

  • Preface
  • Introduction
    • Rumsfeld and the Limits to Knowledge
    • Using Policy Analysis to Inform Decisions
    • Organization of the Book
  • I. Policy Analysis
    • 1. Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude
      • 1.1 The Logic and Credibility of Policy Analysis
      • 1.2 Incentives for Certitude
        • Support for Certitude in Philosophy of Science
      • 1.3 Conventional Certitudes
        • CBO Scoring of Pending Legislation
          • Scoring the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010
          • Credible Interval Scoring
          • Can Congress Cope with Uncertainty?
        • British Norms
      • 1.4 Dueling Certitudes
        • The RAND and IDA Reports on Illegal Drug Policy
          • The National Research Council Assessment
      • 1.5 Conflating Science and Advocacy
        • Friedman and Educational Vouchers
      • 1.6 Wishful Extrapolation
        • Selective Incapacitation
        • Extrapolation from Randomized Experiments: The FDA Drug Approval Process
          • The Study Population and the Population of Interest
          • The Experimental Treatments and the Treatments of Interest
          • The Outcomes Measured in Experiments and the Outcomes of Interest
          • The FDA and Conventional Certitude
        • Campbell and the Primacy of Internal Validity
      • 1.7 Illogical Certitude
        • Heritability
          • What Does “More Important“ Mean?
          • Heritability and Social Policy
          • Gene Measurement
      • 1.8 Media Overreach
        • “The Case for $320,000 Kindergarten Teachers“
        • Peer Review and Credible Reporting
    • 2. Predicting Policy Outcomes
      • 2.1 Deterrence and the Death Penalty
        • Estimates Using Data on Homicide Rates across States and Years
      • 2.2 Analysis of Treatment Response
        • Statistical Inference and Identification
      • 2.3 Predicting Outcomes under Policies That Mandate a Treatment
        • Sentencing and Recidivism
          • Background
          • Our Analysis
          • Analysis Assuming Individualistic Treatment Response
          • Numerical Findings
          • Choosing a Policy
      • 2.4 Identical Treatment Units
        • Before-and-After Studies
        • Difference-in-Differences Studies
          • Employment in Fast-Food Restaurants and the Minimum Wage
      • 2.5 Identical Treatment Groups
        • Experiments with Random Assignment of Treatments
        • The “Gold Standard“
      • 2.6 Randomized Experiments in Practice
        • Extrapolation
        • Compliance
          • The Illinois Unemployment Insurance Experiment
          • Random Compliance
          • Intention-to-Treat
        • The Mixing Problem
          • Extrapolation from the Perry Preschool Project
        • Social Interactions
          • Local and Global Interactions
        • Credible Analysis of Experimental Data
      • 2.7 Random Treatment Choice in Observational Studies
        • Rational Treatment Choice and Selection Bias
          • Outcome Optimization with Perfect Foresight
        • Regression Discontinuity Analysis
      • 2.8 Modeling Rational Treatment Choice
        • Outcome Optimization as a Model of Sentencing
        • Distributional Assumptions
    • 3. Predicting Behavior
      • 3.1 Income Taxation and Labor Supply
        • The Theory of Labor Supply
        • Empirical Analysis
        • Basic Revealed-Preference Analysis
          • Illustration: Labor Supply under Progressive and Proportional Taxes
      • 3.2 Discrete Choice Analysis
          • Random Utility Model Representation of Behavior
          • Attribute Representation of Alternatives and Decision Makers
          • Analysis with Incomplete Attribute Data
          • Practicality
        • College Choice in America
          • Predicting the Enrollment Effects of Student Aid Policy
          • Power and Price of the Analysis
        • Discrete Choice Analysis Today
      • 3.3 Predicting Behavior under Uncertainty
        • How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?
        • How Do Potential Criminals Perceive Sanctions Regimes?
        • Measuring Expectations
          • Pill, Patch, or Shot?
      • 3.4 Perspectives on Rational Choice
        • As-If Rationality
        • Bounded Rationality
        • Biases and Heuristics
          • Widespread Irrationality or Occasional Cognitive Illusions?
        • The Common Thread Is Certitude
  • II. Policy Decisions
    • 4. Planning with Partial Knowledge
      • 4.1 Treating X-Pox
      • 4.2 Elements of Decision Theory
        • States of Nature
        • The Welfare Function
        • Welfare Functions in Studies of Optimal Income Taxation
          • The Mirrlees Study
      • 4.3 Decision Criteria
        • Elimination of Dominated Actions
        • Weighting States and the Expected Welfare Criterion
        • Criteria for Decision Making under Ambiguity
          • Maximin
          • Minimax Regret
        • Using Different Criteria to Treat X-Pox
      • 4.4 Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence
      • 4.5 Vaccination with Partial Knowledge of Effectiveness
        • Background
        • Internal and External Effectiveness
        • The Planning Problem
        • Partial Knowledge of External Effectiveness
        • Choosing a Vaccination Rate
      • 4.6 Rational and Reasonable Decision Making
        • The Savage Argument for Consistency
        • Axiomatic Rationality and Actualist Rationality
        • Axiomatic and Actualist Perspectives on Subjective Probability
          • Ellsberg on Ambiguity
        • The Quest for Rationality and the Search for Certitude
    • 5. Diversified Treatment Choice
        • Diversification and Profiling
      • 5.1 Allocating a Population to Two Treatments
        • The Welfare Function
        • A Status Quo Treatment and an Innovation
          • Expected Welfare
          • Maximin
          • Minimax Regret
          • Choosing Sentences for Convicted Juvenile Offenders
          • Allocation of Wealth to a Safe and Risky Investment
        • Risk-Averse Planning
      • 5.2 Diversification and Equal Treatment of Equals
        • Ex Ante and Ex Post Equal Treatment
        • Combining Consequentialism and Deontological Ethics
      • 5.3 Adaptive Diversification
        • Adaptive Minimax Regret
          • Implementation in Centralized Health Care Systems
        • The AMR Criterion and the Practice of Randomized Clinical Trials
          • Fraction of the Population Receiving the Innovation
          • Group Subject to Randomization
          • Measurement of Outcomes
      • 5.4 Diversification across Time or Space
        • Diversification by Cohort
        • Laboratories of Democracy
      • 5.5 Adaptive Partial Drug Approval
        • The Present Approval Process
        • Binary versus Partial Approval
        • Adaptive Partial Licensing
      • 5.6 Collective Decision Processes
        • Majority-Rule Voting with Single-Peaked Preferences
          • The Credibility of Single-Peaked Preferences
        • Strategic Interactions
        • Learning and Heterogeneity of Policy Preferences
        • Bilateral Negotiations
          • Pareto Optimal Allocations
          • Incentive-Compatible Processes
          • Teacher Evaluation in New York City
      • 5.7 Laissez-Faire
        • Social Learning from Private Experiences
          • Laissez-Faire Learning and Adaptive Diversification
    • 6. Policy Analysis and Decisions
        • Institutional Separation of Analysis and Decisions
        • Doing Better
  • Appendix A: Derivations for Criteria to Treat X-Pox
  • Appendix B: The Minimax-Regret Allocation to a Status Quo Treatment and an Innovation
  • Appendix C: Treatment Choice with Partial Knowledge of Response to Both Treatments
  • References
  • Index

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